The vulnerability of the South African electricity transmission network infrastructure to weather and climate: A review
Meteorological factors have an influence on global energy systems. This study reviewed some of the latest research contributions from other global studies on climate change impacts, energy transportation and international collaboration in the energy-meteorology sector. It is a summary of relevant South African research on energy demand, forecasting and vulnerability to meteorological conditions. International weather-energy partnerships are growing fast, while the Global Framework for Climate Services has provided a global framework for scientific collaboration across sectors to assist with climate-related risk management and decision-making. The uptake in developing regions has remained slow, however, particularly in Africa, where basic requirements such as meteorological observations are still sought. This review found that studies on the impact that future projections of climate change and variability might have on the South African electricity transmission network were inadequate. A deeper understanding of such impacts on the electricity infrastructure would assist considerably with risk management and decision-making; consequently contributing to the sustainable provision of electricity in South Africa.
Alcamo, J., Florke, M, and Marker, M. 2007. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal 52(2), 247-275.
Al-Shaher, M., Saleh, A. S., and Sabry, M. M. 2009. Estimation of fault location and fault resistance for single line-to-ground faults in multi-ring distribution network using artificial neural network. Electric Power Components and Systems, 37(7), 697-713.
Amin, M. 2015. The case for smart grid. Fortnightly. Retrieved 23 October 2016 from the World Wide Web: http://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/20150604091846-Amin-Maaterials-PUF-1503.pdf.
Brown, J. L. and J. L. Lawson. 1989. Birds and electricity transmission lines in South West Africa/Namibia. Madoqua, 16(1), 59-67.
Brown, R. E. 2002. Electric power distribution reliability. Marcel Dekker, New York.
Bunyasi, M. M. 2012. Vulnerability of hydro-electric energy resources in Kenya due to climate change effects: The case of the Seven Forks Project. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences 1: 36-49.
Campbell, R. J. 2012. Weather-related power outages and electric system resiliency. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress.
Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA). 2016. National framework for climate services.
Debba, P., Koen, R., Holloway, J. P., Magadla, T., Rasuba, M., Khuluse, S. and Elphinstone, C. D. 2010. Forecasts for electricity demand in South Africa (2010-2035) using the CSIR sectoral regression model. CSIR Report. Pretoria, South Africa.
Déqué, M., Dreveton, C., Braun, A. and Cariolle, D. 1994. The ARPEGE/IFS atmosphere model: a contribution to the French community climate modelling. Climate Dynamics 10, 249-266.
Ejigu, M. 2014. Bioenergy. Weather and climate change in Africa: Leading issues and policy options. In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Fauchereau, N., Trzaska, S., Rouault, M., and Richard, Y. 2003. Rainfall variability and changes in southern Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context. Natural Hazards 29(2): 139-154.
Fenger, J. 2007. Impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system. Copenhagen: Nordic Council of Ministers.
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S. and Tebaldi, C. 2007. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 27(12): 1547-1578.
Franco G. and Sanstad, A. H. 2008. Climate change and electricity demand in California. Climatic Change 87: 139-151.
George, T., and Hindsberger, M. 2014. Weather and climate impacts on Australia’s national electricity market (NEM). . In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Ghosh, S. 2008. Univariate time‐series forecasting of monthly peak demand of electricity in northern India. International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management 1: 466‐474.
Goia, A., May, C., and Fusai, G. 2010. Functional clustering and linear regression for peak load forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 26(4): 700-711.
Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S. Y., Mickelson, K. E., and Elsner, M. M. 2010. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 103-128.
Harrison, G. P. and Whittington, H. B. W. 2002. Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change. Journal of Hydrology 264: 230-241.
Harsem O., Eide, A. and Heen, K. 2011. Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic. Energy Policy 39: 8037-8045.
Hewitson, B. C, Reason C. J.C., Tennant, W, Jack, C., Mackellar, N., Lennard, C., Hansingo, K., Walawege, R, Mdoka, M. 2004. Dynamical modelling of the present and future climate system. Technical Report to the Water Research Commission, Report No. 1154/1/04, Pretoria, South Africa
Hewitson, B. C., and Crane, R. G. 2006. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology 26(10): 1315-1337.
Hines, P., Apt, J., and Talukdar, S. 2009. Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications. Energy Policy 37(12): 5249-5259.
Inglesi, R. 2010. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030. Applied Energy 87(1): 197-204.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fifth Assessment Report 2014, Chapter 7 Energy Systems. Retrieved 23 October 2016 from the World Wide Web: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter7.pdf.
Kaseke, N. and Hosking, S. G. 2013. Sub-Saharan Africa electricity supply inadequacy: Implications. Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review 29(2): 113-132.
Koen, J. and Gaunt, T. 2003. Geomagnetically induced currents in Southern African electricity transmission network. Presented at the IEEE Bologna Power Tech Conference, Bologna, Italy. 23-26 June 2003.
Koike, T., Onoda, M., Cripe, D and Achache, J. 2010. The global earth observations system of systems (GEOSS): Supporting the needs of decision making in societal benefit areas. International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science 37(8).164-169.
Kopytko, N., and Perkins, J. 2011. Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation–mitigation dilemma. Energy Policy 39(1): 318-333.
Linnerud K., Mideska, T. K. and Eskeland, G. S. 2011. The impact of climate change on nuclear power supply. The Energy Journal 32: 149-167.
Love, G., Plummer, N., Muirhead, I., Grant, I and Rakich, C. 2014. Meteorology and the energy sector. . In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., Schaeffer, R., Borba, B.S.M.C. and Costa, I V. L. 2009. The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil. Energy Policy 37: 879-889.
Majithia, S. 2014. Improving resilience challenges and linkages of the energy industry in changing climate. . In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Majodina, M. 2015. Influence of climate variability on South African electricity production. International Association of Management of Technology 2015 Conference Proceedings, Cape Town, South Africa,8-11 June 2015: 2749-2760.
Makridakis, S.G., Wheelwright, S.C. and Hyndman, R. J. 1998. Forecasting methods and applications, 3rd Edition, Wiley and Sons, New York.
Martikainen, A., Pykala, M. L. and Farin, J. 2007. Recognising climate change in electricity network design and construction. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. Retrieved 23 October 2016 from the World Wide Web: http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/tiedotteet/2007/T2419.pdf.
McColl, L., Palin, E. J., Thornton, H. E., Sexton, D. M., Betts, R. and Mylne, K. 2012. Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network. Climatic Change 115(3-4): 821-835.
Mideksa, T. K., and Kallbekken, S. 2010. The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review. Energy Policy 38(7): 3579-3585.
Minaar, U. J., Gaunt, C. T. and Nicolls, F. 2012. Characterisation of power system events on South African transmission power lines. Electric Power Systems Research 88(4): 25-32.
North, G. R., Pyle, J and Zhang, F. 2015. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd Edition. Elsevier, USA.
Oseni, M. O. 2012. Households’ access to electricity and energy consumption pattern in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 16: 990-995.
Pilli-Sihvola, K, Aatola, P., Ollikanen, M. and Tuomenvirta, H. 2010. Climate change and electricity consumption- witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs? Energy Policy 38: 2409-2419.
Pirovano, G., Faggian, P., Bonelli, P., Lacavalla, M., Marcacci, P. and Ronzio, D. 2014. Combining meteorological and electrical engineering expertise to solve energy management problems. In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Pryor, S. C. and Barthelmie, R. J. 2010. Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14: 430-437.
Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A. S., de Lucena, A. F. P., Borba, B. S. M. C., Nogueira, L. P. P., Fleming, F. P. and Boulahya, M. S. 2012. Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review. Energy 38(1): 1-12.
Sigauke, C. and Chikobvu, D. 2010. Daily peak electricity load forecasting in South Africa using a multivariate non-parametric regression approach. Operations Research Society of South Africa 26 (2): 97‐111.
Sinden, G. 2007. Characteristics of the UK wind resource: Long-term patterns and relationship to electricity demand. Energy Policy 35(1): 112-127.
South African Weather Service (SAWS). 2001. South African Weather Service Climate Bulletin, September.
Spalding-Fecher, R., Senatla, M., Yamba, F, Lukwesa, B., Himunzowa, G., Heaps, C., Chapman, A., Mahumane, G, Tembo, B. and Nyambe, I. 2017. Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool. Energy Policy 101: 403-414.
Szewczuk, S. and Prinsloo, E. 2010. Wind atlas for South Africa: Project overview and current status. 31 Aug-1 September 2010 Pretoria. CSIR 3rd Biennial Conference: Science Real and Conference in 2010. Available from: http://www.csir.co.za/enews/2010_mar/04.html. [Accessed 11 October 2016].
Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and S. E. Haupt (Eds.). 2014. In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., and Haupt, S. E.(Eds.). Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York.
Van Rooyen, C. S. and Ledger, J. A. 1999. Birds and utility structures: Developments in southern Africa. In Ferrer, M. and G. FM Janns.(eds.) Birds and power lines. Quercus: Madrid, Spain: 205-230.
Van Vliet, M. T., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Vögele, S., Lettenmaier, D. P. and Kabat, P. 2012. Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change 2(9): 676-681.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J, Masui, T., Meinhausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J. and Rose, S. K. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change 109: 5-31.
Van Wyk, L. 2009. Regression analysis to estimate South Africa’s electricity demand. Paper presented at Eskom Conference on forecasting in an ever-changing environment, Johannesburg, South Africa, 17 November 2009.
Ward, D. M. 2013. The effect of weather on grid systems and the reliability of electricity supply. Climatic Change 121: 103-113.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2011. Sixteenth Congress: Abridged final report with resolutions. WMO Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland. Retrieved 15 October 2016 from the World Wide Web: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3429.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2015. WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019. WMO Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland. Retrieved 15 October 2016 from the World Wide Web: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3620.
Yamba, F. D. Walimwipi, H., Jain, S., Zhou, P., Cuamba, B and Mzezewa, C. 2011. Climate change/ variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin. Mitigation, Adaptation Strategy Global Change 16:617-628.
Zillman, J.W. 2014. Weather and Climate Information Delivery Within National and International Frameworks. In: Troccoli A., Dubus L., Haupt S. E.(eds) Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York
Ziramba, E. 2008. The demand for residential electricity in South Africa. Energy Policy 36: 3460–3466.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright remains with the author(s).
Publishing rights remain with the author(s)
All articles published in JESA can be re-used under the following CC license: CC BY-SA Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.