Is the summer season losing potential for solar energy applications in South Africa?
Seasonal trends using in situ sunshine duration (SD) and satellite, incoming shortwave solar radiation (SIS) data for South Africa over a period up to six decades were investigated. Trend analysis was applied to SD data of 22 sunshine-recording stations from the South African Weather Service that cover the length and breadth of South Africa. Satellite application facility on climate monitoring provided the high-resolution derived SIS for the period 1983â€“2013. A number of stations show a statistically significant decreasing trend in SD in all four seasons on a seasonal scale. Declines (number of stations showing significant trend) in SD at 17(7), 8(3), 7(3) and 3(0) stations, were observed for summer, autumn, winter and spring, respectively. The SIS has also shown a decreasing trend over South Africa in most of the regions during the summer season followed by autumn. The results indicated a general tendency of decrease in incoming solar radiation mostly during summer which could be of some concern for solar energy applications.
Aurela, M., Beukes, J.P., Van Zyl, P.G., Vakkari, V., TeinilÃ¤, K., Saarikoski, S. and Laakso, L. 2016. The composition of ambient and fresh biomass burning aerosols at a savannah site, South Africa.Â South African Journal of ScienceÂ 112(5/6): 1â€“8.
Adeyemi, A.A., Huan, Z. and Enweremadu, C.C. 2015. Evaluation of global solar radiation using multiple weather parameters as predictors for South Africa provinces.Â Thermal ScienceÂ 19(2): S495â€“S509.
Badescu, V. and Dumitrescu, A. 2013. The CMSAF hourly solar irradiance database (product CM54): Accuracy and bias corrections with illustrations for Romania (south-eastern Europe).Â Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial PhysicsÂ 93: 100â€“109.
Bojanowski, J.S., Vrieling, A. and Skidmore, A.K. 2014. A comparison of data sources for creating a long-term time series of daily gridded solar radiation for Europe.Â Solar EnergyÂ 99:152â€“171.
Dresselhaus, M.S. and Thomas, I.L. 2001. Alternative energy technologies.Â NatureÂ 414(6861): 332â€“337.
GauchÃ©, P., Rudman, J., Mabaso, M., Landman, W.A., von BackstrÃ¶m, T.W. and Brent, A.C. 2017. System value and progress of CSP.Â Solar Energy. Doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2017.03.072.
Google Earth Image: Source: http://www.earth.google .com. Imagery date- December 14, 2015. December 10, 2016. (Retrieved on 10 December, 2016).
Kaiser, D.P. and Qian, Y. 2002. Decreasing trends in sunshine duration over China for 1954â€“1998: Indication of increased haze pollution?Â Geophysical Research LettersÂ 29(21).
Kruger, A.C. 2004. Climate of South Africa.Â Climate regions. WS45. South African Weather Service, Pretoria.
Kruger, A.C. 2007. Trends in cloud cover from 1960 to 2005 over South Africa.Â Water SA,Â 33(5): 603â€“608.
Li, J., Liu, R., Liu, S.C., Shiu, C.J., Wang, J. and Zhang, Y. 2016. Trends in aerosol optical depth in northern China retrieved from sunshine duration data.Â Geophysical Research LettersÂ 43(1): 431â€“439.
Liepert, B.G. and Kukla, G.J. 1997. Decline in global solar radiation with increased horizontal visibility in Germany between 1964 and 1990.Â Journal of Climate,Â 10(9): 2391â€“2401.
MartÃn-Pomares, L., MartÃnez, D., Polo, J., Perez-Astudillo, D., Bachour, D. and Sanfilippo, A. 2017. Analysis of the long-term solar potential for electricity generation in Qatar.Â Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsÂ 73:1231â€“1246.
MÃ¼ller, R., Pfeifroth, U., TrÃ¤ger-Chatterjee, C., Trentmann, J. and Cremer, R. 2015. Digging the METEOSAT treasureâ€”3 decades of solar surface radiation.Â Remote SensingÂ 7(6):8067â€“8101.
MÃ¼ller, Richard; Pfeifroth, Uwe; TrÃ¤ger-Chatterjee, Christine; Cremer, Roswitha; Trentmann, JÃ¶rg; Hollmann, Rainer. 2015. Surface Solar Radiation Data Set - Heliosat (SARAH) - Edition 1. Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring.Â http://dx .doi.org/10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V001.
Mulaudzi, T.S., Maluta, N.E. and Sankaran, V. 2015. Evaluation of the global solar irradiance in the Vhembe district of Limpopo Province, South Africa, using different theoretical models.Â Turkish Journal of PhysicsÂ 39(3): 264â€“271.
Nakumuryango, A. and Inglesi-Lotz, R. 2016. South Africaâ€™s performance on renewable energy and its relative position against the OECD countries and the rest of Africa.Â Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsÂ 56: 999â€“1007.
Perez-Astudillo, D. and Bachour, D. 2014. DNI, GHI and DHI ground measurements in Doha, Qatar.Â Energy ProcediaÂ 49: 2398â€“2404.
Power, H. C., and Mills, D. M. 2004. Trends in solar radiation over South Africa and Namibia during the period 1957â€“1997. Presented at American Geophysical Union Spring Meeting 2004.
Rees, W.G., 2013.Â Physical principles of remote sensing. Cambridge University Press.
Ross, K.E., Piketh, S.J., Bruintjes, R.T., Burger, R.P., Swap, R.J. and Annegarn, H.J. 2003. Spatial and seasonal variations in CCN distribution and the aerosol-CCN relationship over southern Africa.Â Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresÂ 108(D13).
Ruiz-Arias, J.A., Arbizu-Barrena, C., Santos-Alamillos, F.J., Tovar-Pescador, J. and Pozo-VÃ¡zquez, D. 2016. Assessing the surface solar radiation budget in the WRF model: A spatiotemporal analysis of the bias and its causes.Â Monthly Weather ReviewÂ 144(2): 703â€“711.
Sanchez-Romero, A., GonzÃ¡lez, J.A., CalbÃ³, J. and SÃ¡nchez-Lorenzo, A. 2015. Using digital image processing to characterize the Campbellâ€“Stokes sunshine recorder and to derive high-temporal resolution direct solar irradiance.Â Atmospheric Measurement TechniquesÂ 8(1): 183â€“194.
Sanchez-Romero, A., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., GonzÃ¡lez, J.A. and CalbÃ³, J. 2016. Reconstruction of long-term aerosol optical depth series with sunshine duration records.Â Geophysical Research Letters 43: 1296â€“1305. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/ 2015GL067543.
Stanhill, G. 2003. Through a glass brightly: some new light on the Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder.Â WeatherÂ 58(1): 3â€“11.
Statheropoulos, M., Vassiliadis, N. and Pappa, A. 1998. Principal component and canonical correlation analysis for examining air pollution and meteorological data.Â Atmospheric EnvironmentÂ 32(6): 1087â€“1095.
Singer, M., 2010. Changing conceptions of South African coal-based pollution, with special reference to the Witbank coalfield, 1906-1978. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (Doctoral dissertation). http://hdl.handle.net/10539/8366.
Singh, J., Kumar, M. and Bhattacharya, B.K. 2011. Estimation of diffuse insolation for Nagpur, India. Geophysical Research Abstracts 13, EGU2011-906-1.
Singh, J. 2016. Ranking South African provinces on the basis of MERRA 2D surface incident shortwave flux.Â Journal of Energy in Southern AfricaÂ 27(3): 50â€“57.
Singh, J., Bhattacharya, B.K. and Kumar, M. 2012. Solar radiation and evaporation trend over India.Â Journal of Earth Science and EngineeringÂ 2(3): 160â€“165.
Singh, J. and Kumar, M. 2016. Solar radiation over four cities of India: Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall statistical test.Â International Journal of Renewable Energy Research (IJRER)Â 6(4): 1385â€“1395.
Singh, J., Kumar, M. and Bhattacharya, B.K. 2012. Global radiation, transmissivity and bright sunshine hour trend over Nagpur in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences. 2(2): 206â€“209.
Streets, D. G., Wu, Y., and Chin, M. 2006.Two-decadal aerosol trends as a likely explanation of the global dimming/brightening transition. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L15806. Doi: 10.1029/ 2006gl026471.
Trentmann, J., MÃ¼ller, R.W., Posselt, R. and StÃ¶ckli, R. 2013, April. Satellite-based surface solar radiation data provided by CM SAF-Solar energy applications. InÂ EGU General Assembly Conference AbstractsÂ 15, EGU2013-10494.
Wang, L., Gong, W., Lin, A. and Hu, B. 2014. Analysis of photosynthetically active radiation under various sky conditions in Wuhan, Central China. International Journal of BiometeorologyÂ 58(8): 1711â€“1720.
Wild, M. 2009. Global dimming and brightening: A review.Â Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresÂ 114(D10), D00d16. Doi: 10.1029/2008jd011470.
Wood, C.R. and Harrison, R.G. 2011. Scorch marks from the sky.Â WeatherÂ 66(2): 39â€“41.
Yaiche, M.R., Bouhanik, A., Bekkouche, S.M.A., Malek, A. and Benouaz, T. 2014. Revised solar maps of Algeria based on sunshine duration.Â Energy Conversion and ManagementÂ 82: 114â€“123.
Copyright remains with the author(s).
Publishing rights remain with the author(s)
All articles published in JESA can be re-used under the following CC license: CC BY-SA Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.