Decarbonisation and the transport sector: A socio-economic analysis of transport sector futures in South Africa
Globally, governments are investigating transport solutions that not only reduce their national emissions but also decrease their reliance on energy imports and increase clean air in cities and towns. A transition in the transport sector is seemingly inevitable considering these priorities. This study outlines some key socio-economic implications of a transition in South Africa’s transport system, building on work previously done. The focus was on a rapid decarbonisation of the South African economy and the potential impacts of implementing efficiency improvements in the transport sector, including mode-switching. The overall finding was that a more ambitious decarbonisation target would have marginal impact on the economy relative to South Africa’s nationally-determined contribution. It was further found that the implementation of efficiency improvements and changes in behaviour (decreased mileage, increased occupancy, increased rail use and increased use of public transport) could significantly reduce the burden on the economy of a higher GHG emission reduction target.
Alton, T., Arndt, C., Davies, R., Hartley, F., Makrelov, K., Thurlow, J. and Ubogu, D. 2014. Introducing carbon taxes in South Africa. Applied Energy, 116(1): 344–354.
Analysis, Systems, and Planning Group. 2013. Assumptions and methodologies in the South African TIMES (SATIM) Energy Model. Available at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap (accessed February 2017).
Anandarajah, G., McDowall, W. and Ekins, P. 2013. Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 38(8): 3419-3432.
Arndt, C., R. Davies, and J. Thurlow (2011). Energy extension to the South Africa General Equilibrium (SAGE) Model (Version 2). Helsinki: United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research. Unpublished mimeo.
Arndt, C., Davies, R., Gabriel, S., Makrelov, K., Merven, B., Salie, F. and Thurlow, J. 2014. An integrated approach to modelling energy policy in South Africa: Evaluating carbon taxes and electricity import restrictions. UNU-WIDER Working Paper 2014/135. Helsinki: United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.
Burton, J., Caetano, T., Hughes, A., Merven, B., Ahjum, F. and McCall, B. 2016. The impact of stranding power sector assets in South Africa: using a linked model to understand the economy-wide implications. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Dargay, J.M. 2001. The effect of income on car ownership: Evidence of asymmetry. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 35(9): 807-821.
Dervis, K. and Robinson S. 1982. General equilibrium models for development policy. Cambridge University Press.
Energy Research Centre. 2014. South African TIMES model. Available at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/ esap (accessed February 2017).
International Energy Agency [IEA]. 2016. Global EV outlook 2016: Beyond one million electric cars. International Energy Agency. Paris, France. April 2017. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_EV_Outlook_2016.pdf (accessed March 2017).
International Monetary Fund [IMF]. 2015. How large are global energy subsidies? International Monetary Fund Working Paper – WP/15/105. May 2015. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf (accessed March 2017).
Löfgren, H., Lee Harris, R. and Robinson, S. 2002. A standard computable general equilibrium CGE model in GAMS, 5. Microcomputers in policy research. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C. 2002.
Merven, B., Moyo, A., Stone, A., Dane, A. and Winkler, H. 2014. The socio-economic implications of mitigation in the power sector including carbon taxes in South Africa. Working paper for CDKN project on linking sectoral and economy-wide models. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Merven, B., Arndt, C. and Winkler, H. 2017. The development of a linked modelling framework for analysing the socioeconomic impacts of energy and climate policies in South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2017/40. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
Musti, S. and Kockelman, K.M. 2011. Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 45(8): 707-720. ISSN 0965-8564.
Nell, K. 2003. Long-run exogeneity between saving and investment: Evidence from South Africa. TIPS Working Paper 2-2003, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies.
Nolan, A. 2010. A dynamic analysis of household car ownership. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44(6): 446–455. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.tra. 2010.03.018.
Pongthanaisawan, J. and Sorapipatana, C. 2010. Relationship between level of economic development and motorcycle and car ownerships and their impacts on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission in Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9): 2966–2975. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.07.034.
Pye, S., Usher, W. and Strachan, N. 2014. The uncertain but critical role of demand reduction in meeting long-term energy decarbonisation targets. Energy Policy, 73: 575-586.
Republic of South Africa. 1996. White paper on national transport policy. Department of Transport, South Africa.
Republic of South Africa. 1999. Moving South Africa action agenda. Department of Transport, South Africa.
Republic of South Africa. 2013. Energy balance. Department of Energy, South Africa.
Republic of South Africa. 2013b. GHG inventory for South Africa 2000–2010. Department of Environmental Affairs, South Africa.
Republic of South Africa. 2016. National transport master plan NATMAP 2050. Department of Transport, South Africa. 19 October 2016.
Republic of South Africa. 2016b. Draft integrated energy plan IEP report. Department of Energy, South Africa. Pretoria.
Rostrup-Nielsen, J.R., Sehested, J. and Nørskov, J.K. 2002. Hydrogen and synthesis gas by steam- and CO2 reforming. Advances in Catalysis, 47.
Schwanen, T., Banister, D. and Anable, J. 2011. Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 45(10): 993-1006.
Skippon, S., Veeraraghavan, S., Ma, H., Gadd, P. and Tait, N. 2012. Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO 2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: case studies for the USA and Europe. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 46(9): 1405-1423.
Thurlow, J. 2004. A Dynamic computable general equilibrium CGE model for South Africa: Extending the static IFPRI model. Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies, Pretoria, South Africa.
Thurlow, J. 2008. A recursive dynamic CGE model and microsimulation poverty module for South Africa. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., USA.
United Kingdom. 2017. Driving the future today: A Strategy for ultra-low emission vehicles in the UK. Office for Low Emission Vehicles. UK Government. London. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/driving-the-future-today-a-strategy-for-ultra-low-emission-vehicles-in-the-uk (accessed August 2017).
Venter, I. 2017. New body to tackle public perception, cost of electric vehicles. Engineering News. 25 January 2017.
http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/ article/new-body-to-tackle-public-perception-costs-of-electric-vehicles-2017-01-25 (accessed March 2017).
Winkler, H. 2007. Long-term mitigation scenarios. Project Report. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Wright, J., Bischof-Niemz, T., Calitz, C., Mushwana, C., van Heerden, R., Senatla, M. 2017. Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update assumptions, base case and observations. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Copyright remains with the author/s of the article/s.
All articles published in JESA can be re-used under the following CC license: CC BY-SA Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.